Also average response time is a bad metrics. For one, the average is a bad measure if the variance is high. So I'll probably use 95% time instead of average.
But as a PM I have a different question. Which is the impact of the response time of Github on the user experience? 25% reduction on an average of 2 sec improves greatly the user experience, on a 200ms for a service that has basically no competition is just a marginal improvement, on a 50 ms average is not noticeable.
How is it distributed across multiple operations? Improving the latency of loading a diff is probably more important than the latency of approving a PR. In one case I'm trying to work, in the second I'm done with the work.
Now, my experience with GitHub is that it is already reasonably fast unless I'm doing something stupid. So the CPU utilization is a good metrics because 10% less CPU means 10% less server I need to pay and that goes to their bottom line (I don't know their economics to decide if it is substantial or not). The 25% reduction in latency is just icing on the cake...
Interesting point of view. I would challenge this article by asking you what you are using the roadmap for. For me, a roadmap is mostly a communication tool. Off course, if I say I'll do something there's a commitment to that. But I always try to create an understanding that my roadmap is more a vision open to refinement and improvement than a set of solutions.
In this context, I find a feature roadmap easier to share most of the time. Discussing which problem I'm solving is always difficult for many reasons:
1) unless I'm really unfocused, the big problem I'm solving should be the same. I could tackle different parts of the problem, but it is more difficult to communicate
2) when you present a priority between problems you are solving, people develop a "negative" mood. Every problem is a priority. If you focus more on general features, there's more the issue of creating "pet projects".
That said, I always use a problem point of view when working on prioritization and approaching a product.
I agree with your comment. Amazon has a problem of 1) how to police all this long-tail product, 2) how to onboard the number of sellers that needs to fulfill the demand for long-tail products.
I'm pretty sure that if someone were to sell a counterfeited copy of a best seller, his store would be shut down in a matter of hours and his account closed forever. But a small store selling stuff difficult to find? They are doing them a service, almost.
Like everything else, there are rules against counterfeiting, but the enforcement should strike a balance for the overall wellbeing of the marketplace...
Mmm... 2.2B MAU. When you think about how they counted them, probably they used HyperLogLog. In usual configuration, it has a 0.7 - 1% error. Basically a medium-sized country...
Or the number of users that any startup founder will die for...
It is impressive what Facebook managed to build, but, although the number is staggering, the relative amount of people that switched from horses to cars or to electricity for illumination from candles and burning oil is even bigger... People do not voluntarily stop using something, but the force of innovation is huge. Very few Fortune 500 companies even existed 100 years ago, and the pace of disruption is accelerating...
we usually overestimate short term trends and under estimate long term trends.
Who would have thought Apple would be the most valuable company when the iPhone came out. Nokia was the king back then. Kids nowadays don’t even know what Nokia is.
Wow! You are saying no one in the US expects, or at least consider that could be an obstacle on the street in front of you? It doesn't mean necessarily a pedestrian. An animal? Cargo lost by a truck in front of you?
It is the responsibility of the driver to be alert and try to minimize the impact. Just because a cyclist shouldn't cross a four-lane road in the middle of the night, doesn't mean you shouldn't look for obstacles.
I find it remarkable that people don't understand there's a non-subtle difference between signing up voluntarily on the Obama website using Facebook and consenting to the information collection vs. signing up for a quiz from an unrelated company and having that data used by the Trump campaign.
If you don't understand the difference, it is the same difference between having consensual sex with your girlfriend and raping your neighbor girlfriend because she consented to have sex with him...
Now, this metaphor is imperfect, but from what we could see the Obama campaign was within the boundary allowed by Facebook TOS and what disclosed to the user. Did they push this to the limit? Yes. To the point that FB didn't think it was feasible. But legit according to the rule. Maybe having consensual extreme BSDM sex with your girlfriend vs. raping your neighbor's GF? Quiz, which one is legal and which one is not?
I believe the Obama campaign used Facebook friend connections to target individual voters [1]
("Online, the get-out-the-vote effort continued with a first-ever attempt at using Facebook on a mass scale to replicate the door-knocking efforts of field organizers. In the final weeks of the campaign, people who had downloaded an app were sent messages with pictures of their friends in swing states. They were told to click a button to automatically urge those targeted voters to take certain actions, such as registering to vote, voting early or getting to the polls.")
Note that I specifically picked an article from 2012 because the past 48 hours has seen quite a few articles discussing the Obama Facebook campaign -- articles which I'd argue are likely subject to a taint of bias, given the recent CA events (I'd guess that journalists are digging for a story, which tends to skew perspectives). Anyway, this kind of targeting is, in hindsight, not really OK with me -- but I think the line here is that the Obama campaign collected information and asked your friends (who supported the campaign) to pitch in by asking particular friends to vote. This year's election was much more subtle, since instead targeted voters were treated to a slew of biased ads and propaganda stories. At least, that's how I see it.
Also, while I don't disagree with your analogy, anything involving sexual assault is probably going to hurt rather than help your arguments with most crowds. I don't think it's something we should ignore, of course, but we should keep in mind that it's a strong metaphor -- akin to calling someone "literally Hitler" -- so you might want to reconsider that in the future. Not trying to be a jerk, just trying to be helpful, so feel free to ignore my unsolicited advice.
Every time an individual volunteers to help out – for instance by offering to host a fundraising party for the president – he or she will be asked to log onto the re-election website with their Facebook credentials. That in turn will engage Facebook Connect, the digital interface that shares a user's personal information with a third party.
Consciously or otherwise, the individual volunteer will be injecting all the information they store publicly on their Facebook page – home location, date of birth, interests and, crucially, network of friends – directly into the central Obama database.
---
> it is the same difference between having consensual sex with your girlfriend and raping your neighbor girlfriend because she consented to have sex with him...
Really, rape, that's the best metaphor to reach for...
You are right, that is non-subtle difference and should be noted. But I feel like the most egregious aspect of the process was being able to gather data on unsuspecting users by getting their friends to use the app. That's entirely legal, but definitely is the part that I think most people take the biggest offense to, and that is something that was done by both the Trump and Obama teams.
I fail to see how this comment is at all constructive to the situation at hand. What personal bias are you talking about here? Would it really be that hard to elaborate? Instead of acting like you're better than the grandparent poster, it would be far better to either a) engage him in a conversation or b) not comment at all.
Constructive conversation on certain topics is sometimes not possible when in a forum that leans too far to the right or the left. There is a common mentality among many people where they know they are right, such that no response to differing opinions is even necessary, a downvote will do (which is doubly useful, because it censors the downvoted person for some period of time). And if you do not support the narrative, you will be downvoted. Respect is a two way street, or at least it used to be.
I'm happy to engage in a debate any time, finding someone else willing to participate is a problem when everyone is only interested in discussing the nuances of how they agree with each other.
I'll also disagree that it's not better to comment at all - voices of dissent are valuable in a democracy, silencing them is the actually dangerous path to take, but that seems to be the path that's been chosen, so we'll see how it works out.
I agree that constructive conversation is sometimes very very difficult depending on biases in participants. You make a good point that people sometimes simply dismiss differing ideas because "they're wrong" with little basis -- these kind of shortcuts are generally necessary in life (you'd never get anything done if you didn't sometimes use heuristics to assess the value of an argument) but also reinforce biases since your heuristics tend to favor arguments with which you agree.
However, I'd just like to say that your previous comment didn't give me much of an impression that you're happy to engage in a debate -- how on earth can I participate in a conversation with you when your comment is 18 words, and I have no clue what you're trying to express? That is why I responded: because I had no clue what you were trying to say, but I was curious.
My point about "not commenting at all" wasn't so much in regard to democracy (on a political platform, most discussion is good, because you need to consider the needs of many different people), but rather just a guide to good behaviour, a la "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all." I think HN is made a better place by dissenting opinions (I dislike echo chambers in general) but one-off dismissive comments do not a constructive conversation make. You need to give reasoning and explain your arguments.
I also noticed that you seem a little preoccupied with downvotes. Personally, I don't think you should sweat them too much, as long as you feel like you're having constructive conversations and behaving civilly (in this comment thread, I'm happy to report that you made a lot of good points, and did a lot better than that first comment I responded to). If somebody downvotes you simply for having a different opinion, they're breaking HN rules. Downvotes, as far as I know, are supposed to be used for limiting the visibility of off-topic/poor quality comments. So if you get downvoted, your comments might be poor quality... or you might just be off topic. This thread is awfully off-topic, but I personally believe it's good quality discussion, so if it gets downvoted, I don't mind much: I still benefited, but it might get hidden from general readers. That's OK.
Anyway, thank you for responding to my (probably slightly-too-critical) comment in a reasonable way where you explained your thoughts. I apologize for misjudging you based on your previous comment.
> You make a good point that people sometimes simply dismiss differing ideas because "they're wrong" with little basis -- these kind of shortcuts are generally necessary in life (you'd never get anything done if you didn't sometimes use heuristics to assess the value of an argument)
YES! The problem is, who besides you and I realize this, nowadays? As far as I can tell, and believe me I'm sincerely looking for it, I feel like people are falling into some sort of a zombie state. Reddit has been like this for quite some time now, I honestly think it is spreading to HN now, at least on any topic that has a non-technical, non-purely-objective component.
> However, I'd just like to say that your previous comment didn't give me much of an impression that you're happy to engage in a debate -- how on earth can I participate in a conversation with you when your comment is 18 words, and I have no clue what you're trying to express? That is why I responded: because I had no clue what you were trying to say, but I was curious.
That's me lashing out at you due to my frustration with the new culture of close-mindedness around here. 100% wrong on my part no doubt, but being reasonable doesn't do shit so might as well join the party and get an adrenalin shot I guess is my thinking.
> If somebody downvotes you simply for having a different opinion, they're breaking HN rules
That didn't used to be true, because there have been discussions about just that. Currently, it's not even mentioned in Guidelines or FAQ afaict. (I've been breaking a few of these lately tbh.)
> So if you get downvoted, your comments might be poor quality
My main frustration is, you can post a substantive, reasoned comment, and rather than a reasoned disagreement, just downvotes. And fast. That by itself is not so big a deal, it's the intellectual swagger (my interpretation, of course) that so many people carry, but can't piece together a decent argument. Again, this is pretty much what reddit has become, but it's sad to see even HN isn't immune.
> I apologize for misjudging you based on your previous comment.
I can be a jerk from time to time.
Thanks for replying by the way, encountering someone who actually thinks, even if it's differently than me (not that it's the case here), helps restore my faith in humanity.
Fair enough, but it wouldn't have made any difference. Disagreement with this particular aspect of the local culture will get you a downvote, not a discussion. Any discussion, if you're lucky to get one, would be better described as a re-education lecture, to teach you the "facts" of "how things are".
Jonathan Haidt has studied this psychological phenomenon quite extensively and in my opinion it does a good job of explaining the recent unusual behavior of the public, it's a shame no one's interested.
I've found Haidt's work very useful. One of the things I've taken from Haidt is how important both sides of the communication are. Blaming everything on "the other side" as you are doing here ("ny discussion, if you're lucky to get one, would be better described as a re-education lecture" and "it's a shame no one's interested") does exactly the opposite, regardless of how accurate you might feel the description is.
If you're looking for nuance and constructive discussion, it's crucial to put that foot forward yourself. And understanding, given the climate, that it's likely going to be a lot of work, as you're working against built-in human psychological biases that are unfortunately being reinforced by many trends in media, both traditional and online. Loading your discourse with the phrases you do here are working against that. I'm glad that you've found Haidt interesting in some way. Step up and work the problem, rather than contribute to it. There's no quick fix.
> Blaming everything on "the other side" as you are doing here
> Step up and work the problem, rather than contribute to it.
My argument is that HN is increasingly becoming a ~"progressive, illiberal echo chamber", where dissenting ideas are not welcome or open for discussion, and censored (to the degree that people like me often have to wait up to several hours or until the next day (in which case the discussion is effectively over) to post a comment as I am almost always in the penalty box, for the reasons being discussed here).
If that's true, should the onus be only on the censored side to fix the situation?
If you believe my claim isn't true:
- do you believe that it is possible for any community to be like this?
- do you believe HN has any imperfections at all in this respect?
If you think the problem is solely (or mostly) on one side (regardless of which side that is), then there's no point on continuing this discussion, as you're completely ignoring my opening point: that good communication requires all sides to participate in a constructive manner. You must take into account the effect your behavior and words have, beyond your intent, and beyond what you believe the content of what you're trying to convey. You need to take into account the human in general, and if you know more about the human you're engaging with, what you know of them.
If that's not something you believe, take to heart, and practice, you're part of the problem, and it's not worth my while to continue attempting to engage. This is regardless of one's ideological views, and something Haidt hammers home repeatedly.
Edit to add: Of course HN has imperfections. (And to answer your other question society has imperfections: to suggest otherwise is facile and disingenuous.) Online discourse is hard, and new, and we haven't come close to figuring out the best ways to do so. That doesn't excuse each of us taking responsibility for trying to make it the best we can.
Ok, maybe I'm a complete autist, I simply can't understand where you're coming from.
> If you think the problem is solely (or mostly) on one side (regardless of which side that is), then there's no point on continuing this discussion
Literally, you are saying that unless I don't believe that the "guilt" is exactly 50/50, you won't continue the discussion? I'm communicating in good faith am I not? If not, what am I doing wrong?
Or, is the problem that I'm not agreeing with you? Because that is exactly what this feels like to me, and it is precisely the aspect of the recent HN culture that I'm complaining about.
There is no shortage of conservative science-hating idiots on forums, is that what I am? Does it seem likely that the person who first mentions Jonathan Haidt, and links to a talk very closely related to this subject, is the same type of person "who believes 100% of a communication problem is on the other side"? Political discussion is difficult, that's my point. Human beings of both political stripes suffer from the same psychological shortcomings. I am aware of this. I am pointing this out. I regularly get censored (via time-outs in the penalty box), not for posting crap (which I admittedly do on occasion, largely out of extended frustration from what I'm complaining about), but because I disagree with the general political sentiment. But then if one reads the HN guidelines, considering a downvote as a means of disagreement is correct behavior, expecting anything else is probably bordering on mentally retarded and I should just take the hint.
I suppose as a last request, I'll ask for a favor: what should I have written in my previous reply? Other than just completely agreeing with you (which I don't, and makes conversation a bit pointless), I honestly can't think of anything that would be appropriate.
Tribalism is a powerful bias, and one we need to work against if we're to have reasonable discourse with people we might not necessarily agree with. That means we must actively work against that, which includes not reinforcing "us" vs "them" dynamic, which is what you do when you continue to use language like "HN is increasingly becoming a ~"progressive, illiberal echo chamber"". Regardless of how true that may be, that might work in a long-form, thoughtful essay, but it definitely doesn't work in an online forum in short soundbites. It comes off as labelling people into groups and name calling. That's just another form of tribalism.
You also need to be charitable, which means when I bring up "If you think the problem is solely (or mostly) on one side (regardless of which side that is), then there's no point on continuing this discussion", providing examples of where you're doing this, you don't put words in my mouth such as "unless I don't believe that the "guilt" is exactly 50/50". And you certainly don't promote a constructive discussion where we're talking about how to promote better conversation by accusing me of requiring you to agree with everything I say. There's a difference between providing a framework, a set of expectations where people can usefully discuss contentious issues and requiring people to agree on those contentious issues. I don't know how to have a conversation when the focus is on blame and pointing fingers rather than on what actually move things forward, and I also know that if I don't think a conversation is worth having or continuing (for whatever reason, including that I don't know how to move forward), it's best that I leave it.
You mention "I honestly can't think of anything that would be appropriate" in considering alternative replies: there's nothing wrong with not replying at all. Sometimes that's the right choice. Another option is to look at Rapoport's rules of criticism as a guide when you feel you're stuck:
You also need to be aware of what you leave yourself open to. While you may not be one of the "conservative science-hating idiots on forums", when you use similar language ("re-education lecture"? really?), you aren't doing yourself any favors by making it easy for others to lump you into those groups. It would be nice if people were perfectly rational and able to always make such nuanced distinctions, but you know that's not the case. You need to take that into account because that's how people are.
You need to be better than those you decry. You don't get to point and say "that's not fair, look what they're doing", because that's all some will hear. You don't get to say in so many words "you need to listen to me because you're ignorant of your biases and I'm telling you the hard truths." You don't get to label people into groups. You don't get to have a chip on your shoulder, even when you see the chips on others'. Yeah, you might feel like you're fighting with a hand tied behind your back. But the point is that we're not supposed to be fighting or arguing. We're supposed to be figuring out how to work through things together.
If you think or know you're treading on sensitive topics or at (or across) the edges of the community's expectations, you need to take that into account and be even more reflective in what you say. Those that already agree with you aren't those you really need to reach; and realistically, you're not going to reach people who aren't willing to listen to you. You have a chance with those who are still open-minded enough to listen to you. You need to take advantage of that, couching what you say in ways that are going to be effective in encouraging them to believe you're reasonable and someone who's worth listening to in the future. People stop listening when they're feeling attacked and put on the defensive, so you need to endeavor not to do that (and to recognize when you have, learn from it, and likely back off). From my experience that's the same online and off.
You know this is tough stuff. You've said so yourself. And people make mistakes, both in speaking/writing and in listening/reading. It makes it all the more important to be unrelenting in being charitable and constructive in discourse, in working against the biases we both know are there. And very likely HN isn't the proper forum for contentious stuff. The bandwidth's too limited. Our reputations aren't on the line like they are in real social interactions. But if you intend to, I encourage you to take this stuff to heart and work on the only thing you immediately can, which is your own actions and behavior.
As the original poster who started this chain (by criticizing /u/mistermann's comment) I'd just like to say that I found this exchange both thought-provoking and civil, especially given its contentious beginnings. I'd just like to thank you for taking the time to express your opinions in a clear, respectful way. As it turns out, I'm also a fan of Jonathan Haidt -- I'm currently reading through several of his books at varied paces -- and you've clearly really taken the time to understand and convey some of his key ideas here. Sites like Hacker News are a great deal better due to commenters like you.
I am constantly on the lookout for people whose studies are related to what the f has "suddenly" gone wrong with humanity. I really think Jonathan is on to something (although at the same time, I sense he's trying to sell a lot of books, but what can you do).
I just listened to:
#03 Under The Skin with Russell Brand & Adam Curtis - Do We Really Want Change?
Adam Curtis is a documentary film maker, his most recent one is fairly famous, Hypernormalization. I haven't seen it because I thought it was a hardcore conspiracy theorist movie, but now I think that's not the case.
Very sound advice, and I'd like to extend my extremely sincere thanks for you taking the time to write it.
I think the key takeaway is that HN is simply not the forum for political discussions, so probably the best strategy for me is to not open any comments on those topics.
What this has to do with the parent comment? I'm asking these because I'm not sure I follow the reasoning.
Your concern is that the SEC has very strict reporting standards and regulations. These are intended to provide a fair field between all investors (accredited and non-accredited) in order for the market to function in a more efficient way. In exchange for this increased cost of regulation upfront, the transaction between investors on the company's shares have a much lower friction (and transaction costs).
Private companies have lower regulation because the assumption is that the investors willing to buy shares are open to assume higher transaction costs in terms of due diligence. Obviously, reporting the false could open the company to lawsuits, but that's also part of the potential cost for the investors.
The choice between being a public company and a private one, in the end, is a function also of this trade-off. If I understand your reasoning, you fear that the SEC forcing himself into the private market could increase the regulatory cost of all startup. Am I right?
If that is correct, my answer would be that the SEC is not imposing the full regulation but just a minimum level of accurate reporting on behalf of the investors. This is because there's an assumption that a well behaved private market is essential to make the economy more active (imagine if this level of lying was accepted, how many investors would be willing to invest?). On the other side, I see the risk of a slippery slope and having the SEC power to grow to large and kill the startup ecosystems. I don't have a clear answer for that.
[styling note, I had pulled out the statement made in the GP comment and made it italics to emphasize it, in reference to the above comment's question "what this has to do with the parent comment].
So stylism aside, you have correctly surmised my concern that the SEC is looking to move into private markets more aggressively. I think the reason for that is nuanced but having lived through the dot.com bubble and watched how the government responded to that bubble (Sarbanes Oxley anyone?) And the huge losses that are being taken by the large banks as their Unicorns died in this the Unicorn bubble, basically accredited or not investors with lots of capital get mad when they are mislead, and their anger typically results in them getting their "friends" to do something about it. We currently have an integration between banking interest and the administration that is as deep as it has ever been. So there are many contacts both official and unofficial between Wall Street and DC.
There is also the perception of the disproportionate channeling of wealth creation to a smaller number of people through private company 'trading'. Add the antics of Uber and Theranos to the mix and it provides a convenient place for the powers that be to take "logical" and "needed" steps to curb the abuses. Generally resulting in more regulation and more risk on startups.
Question: have you read the article? Loyalty rate is defined as the number of users who switched from one platform to the other in the last year over the number of user on the departing platform. They even say that the absolute number looks different because of the bigger market share of Android.
Now, your argument is that someone who chose to stay with a device with smaller CB is more loyal, but what the article is saying is that out of 100 Android user, around 90 bought a new Android when replacing the phone, while only 86 Apple user bought a new iPhone.
I don't see how you dispute this fact as an evidence that Android users are more loyal. Even an argument on network advantage doesn't work because Android phones are very compatible with Apple ones (not the other way around) and the Apple ecosystem is still pretty big...
Let me put it this way. You walk into a Verizon store and see 15 cell phones. 2-3 of them are iOS. The other 12-13 are android. Buying an iOS device is likely to mean that your an Apple fan. Buying an android might mean that you like android. Or it might mean you like the particular phone, or you might be price conscious. All things that are not “android loyalty”.
One problem is that iOS is essentially the same thing as iPhone in terms of purchasing decisions. This is not true for android. Ergo, it’s not safe to equate the phone and OS in the android world but it mostly is in the iOS world.
Nope, GM has already self-driving cars on the street here in San Francisco. Remember they own Cruise.
So, GM has decided to go to Mars as Tesla did. It has acquired the tech to go to Mars and started testing it. In the meanwhile realized it could copy a page from Tesla's book and put some semi-autonomous vehicle on the road. And, according to this article, did an excellent job.
I'm no way a GM fanboy (do they even exists), but could we be fair?
"I'm no way a GM fanboy (do they even exists), but could we be fair?"
You didn't even read my post, and you want to talk about fair?
I very clearly state that Tesla is updating new features into cars, while GM is not.
That Tesla gets phase 1, phase 2, and beyond, while GM merely labels phase 1 by a marketing name and will never update it ever.
There is a massive chasm here between buying a car today that will "may take you to mars", and buying a car today that "will absolutely, never, ever, ever be capable of going to mars".
GM has a Level 2, maybe Level 3, self-driving platform in its current generation of self-driving cars. It's not claiming that current cards will be able to achieve Level 4 or 5 self-driving functionality. But it is expecting that future generations of their cars will, especially once low-cost LIDARs are incorporated into their platform.
Tesla has, being charitable, a Level 1 self-driving platform. Current Tesla cars don't have the sensors or processing power to handle the demands necessary for Level 3 self-driving, let alone Level 5 (i.e., truly autonomous functionality). Hell, Tesla's current hardware platform does't even have the same level of functionality as their original self-driving hardware (using MobiEye), which was just glorified lane-keeping and self-parking, i.e., Level 1 self-driving.
Tesla is playing a dangerous marketing game and deserves to be called on their bullshit.
Even being very very friendly and interpreting your comment in the way you clarified it, there is an assumption in your comment. The assumption is that Tesla will be able to bring their car to Level 5, full autonomy, while GM will not be able to that. And let me ask you why you say so? Just because Tesla, in a marketing move, tells you they will be able to do that, and GM is not doing that? Maybe GM has a legal department that warned them not to do that?
To paraphrase your point, no there's no difference between a car that, according to their marketing "will maybe be able to go to mars" and a car that "has the hardware that could be maybe able to go to mars, but we prefer to tell you now because we could be liable if we fail". I understand the value of aspirational statements, but still...
Can you point to 1 time a GM vehicle was substantially enhanced through a software update?
If so, your point has merit.
If not, you are hiding behind hypotheticals in a very dishonest way.
I have NEVER heard of GM upgrading existing vehicles with significant new functionality through a FREE software update.
If that is the truth, that they have never done it, never announced it, and yet you come here and suggest that they are in fact doing something that they are not, that is supremely dishonest.
I researched GM for half an hour to find evidence that you are not being dishonest. That you are not hiding behind some really bad hypothetical.
But I found nothing to exonerate your position from the realm of "fantastical hypothetical rendered dishonestly", so I hope you can respond and help me.
...Yet at the start there was a clear vision,
A high and urgent purpose in my soul
Which drove me on trying to memorize
The Encyclopedia Britannica!