I think this advice is pretty apt for small to medium sized companies. We're all invested in the company succeeding, but you don't want to become known as the person that always says "no".
At large companies, I've rarely found a reason to speak out on a project. Unless it has a considerable effect on my team/work (read: peace of mind), it just doesn't make sense to be the person casting doubt. There's not much ROI for being "right".
If you manage to kill the project before it starts, no one will ever know how bad of a disaster you prevented. If the project succeeds despite your objections, you look like an idiot. And if it fails - as the author notes, that doesn't get remembered either.
As a senior IC, the only real ROI I've found in these situations is when you can have a solution handy if things fail. People love a fixer. Even if you only manage to pull this off once or twice, your perception in the org/company gets a massive boost. "Wow, so-and-so is always thinking ahead."
A basic example I saw at my last company was automated E2E testing in production. My teammate had suggested this to improve our ability to detect regressions, but it was ultimately shot down as not being worth the investment over other features.
A few months later, we had seen multiple instances of users hitting significant issues before we could catch them. My teammate was able to whip out the test framework they had been building on the side, and was immediately showered with praise/organizational support (and I'm sure a great review as well).
I've realized that climbing the corporate ladder doesn't make any sense. You put more effort, you take responsibility for stupid people's decisions, and then you get a disproportionately small reward. The smartest move is to find a bottom-tier position where they pay you enough to sustain your desired lifestyle, but where you cannot really be blamed for failures of the management.
> You put more effort, you take responsibility for stupid people's decisions, and then you get a disproportionately small reward
On that I disagree. Managers might have to take responsibility for bad decisions, sure, but get a disproportionately larger reward than those under them. It's certainly less stressful at the bottom of the ladder, but don't expect to get much praise or monetary reward, and you're the first to go as soon as something goes wrong. There's a reason why late-stage companies are full of middle managers, and few people actually doing the work.
> don't expect to get much praise or monetary reward
Yeah so I figured out that if I have a bullshit busyjob for €100k and my option is to actually start working my ass off and maybe double the salary in absolute best-case scenario, then fuck that. But I admit that my position might be exceptional.
> and you're the first to go as soon as something goes wrong.
I live in Europe so I assume I'd survive even a big fuckup as long as I'm following my manager's orders, even if HQ is American. Also, when there are bigger layoffs, they specifically by law must let go in the order of new hires to old hires, which means that I'm not in immediate danger even if they cut workforce.
The biggest danger is someone discovering that I mostly play video games at work and then giving me lots of useless tasks just to keep me occupied.
I feel like both of these examples are insights that won't be relevant in a year.
I agree that CC becoming omniscient is science fiction, but the goal of these interfaces is to make LLM-based coding more accessible. Any strategies we adopt to mitigate bad outcomes are destined to become part of the platform, no?
I've been coding with LLMs for maybe 3 years now. Obviously a dev who's experienced with the tools will be more adept than one who's not, but if someone started using CC today, I don't think it would take them anywhere near that time to get to a similar level of competency.
I base part of my skepticism about that on the huge number of people who seem to be unable to get good results out of LLMs for code, and who appear to think that's a commentary on the quality of the LLMs themselves as opposed to their own abilities to use them.
It's funny that you mention moving outside the city when Zohran's tax plan is centered on bringing the corporate tax rate in-line with our neighboring state.
I'll also caveat that any parallels you might see in Seattle don't really apply to NYC. Besides the low car ownership rates, wealthy individuals choose to in NYC for it's convenience and culture, which really are unique in the US.
There's undoubtedly a cohort of tourists that come to Japan with the "Disneyland" mindset, and I agree that some sort of government-level change is needed to curb abuse. But I would like to believe these folks are in the minority.
I think a greater proportion of the tourist population are individuals that visit Japan and maybe haven't done enough research, or are just unaware of norms here. Not understanding where to queue, how to order, navigate public transport, what to do at a temple, onsen, etc. This group isn't the 15% of "Best in Class tourists" Craig writes about, but rather the 75% that want to be respectful and don't know any better.
Many locals/expats will see this group and look down in disdain (or lament about them in a blog post...), but why don't more people just ask if they need help? It takes little effort to point someone in the right direction, and if it helps them better understand the country it's a win-win for both tourists and residents alike.
I feel like people love to talk about how considerate Japanese culture is, but don't care to practice it themselves when given the chance.
I'm increasingly certain that companies leaning too far into the AI hype are opening themselves up to disruption.
The author of this post is right, code is a liability, but AI leaders have somehow convinced the market that code generation on demand is a massive win. They're selling the industry on a future where companies can maintain "productivity" with a fraction of the headcount.
Surprisingly, no one seems to ask (or care) about how product quality fares in the vibe code era. Last month Satya Nadella famously claimed that 30% of Microsoft's code was written by AI. Is it a coincidence that Github has been averaging 20 incidents a month this year?[1] That's basically once a work day...
Nothing comes for free. My prediction is that companies over-prioritizing efficiency through LLMs will pay for it with quality. I'm not going to bet that this will bring down any giants, but not every company buying this snake oil is Microsoft. There are plenty of hungry entrepreneurs out there that will swarm if businesses fumble their core value prop.
Haha, I tried to couch this by adding "too far", but I agree. Companies should let their teams try out relevant tools in their workflows.
My point was more of a response to the inflated expectations that people have about AI. The current generation of AI tech is rife with gotchas and pitfalls. Many companies seem to be making decisions with the hope that they will out-innovate any consequences.
How so? Not enough art slop logos so they don't have to pay an artist? Other than in maximizing shareholder return I fail to see how foregoing AI is putting them "behind".
AI, especially for programming, is essentially no better than your typical foriegn offshore programming firm, with nonsensical comments and sprawling conflicting code styles.
If it eventually becomes everything the proponents say it will, they could always just start using it more.
I thought this was an interesting post with some outlandish statements, but I was willing to grapple with them because I thought the author was cooking up something new...
Then I realized this was a post from geohot and felt very foolish the 15 minutes I spent thinking through his argument. Why is this so upvoted!
At large companies, I've rarely found a reason to speak out on a project. Unless it has a considerable effect on my team/work (read: peace of mind), it just doesn't make sense to be the person casting doubt. There's not much ROI for being "right".
If you manage to kill the project before it starts, no one will ever know how bad of a disaster you prevented. If the project succeeds despite your objections, you look like an idiot. And if it fails - as the author notes, that doesn't get remembered either.
As a senior IC, the only real ROI I've found in these situations is when you can have a solution handy if things fail. People love a fixer. Even if you only manage to pull this off once or twice, your perception in the org/company gets a massive boost. "Wow, so-and-so is always thinking ahead."
A basic example I saw at my last company was automated E2E testing in production. My teammate had suggested this to improve our ability to detect regressions, but it was ultimately shot down as not being worth the investment over other features.
A few months later, we had seen multiple instances of users hitting significant issues before we could catch them. My teammate was able to whip out the test framework they had been building on the side, and was immediately showered with praise/organizational support (and I'm sure a great review as well).
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