The more I use AI for coding the more I realize that its a toy for vibe coding/fun projects. Its not for serious work.
When you work with a large codebase which have a very high complexity level, then the bugs put in there by AI will not worth the cost of the easily added features.
Many people also program and have no idea what a giant codebase looks like.
I know I don't. I have never been paid to write anything beyond a short script.
I actually can't even picture what a professional software engineer actually works on day to day.
From my perspective, it is completely mind blowing to write my own audio synth in python with Librosa. A library I didn't know existed before LLMs and now I have a full blown audio mangling tool that I would have never been able to figure out on my own.
It seems to me professional software engineering must be at least as different to vibe coding as my audio noodlings are to being a professional concert pianist. Both are audio and music related but really two different activities entirely.
I work on a stock market trading system in a big bank, in Hong Kong.
The code is split between a backend in Java (no GC allowed during trading) and C++ (for algos), a frontend in C# (as complex as the backend, used by 200 traders), and a "new" frontend in Javascript in infinite migration.
Most of the code was made before 2008 but that was the cvs to svn switch so we lost history before that. We have employees dating back 1997 who remembers that platform already existing.
It's made of millions of lines of code, hundreds of people worked on it, it does intricate things in 10 stock markets across Asia (we have no clue how the others in US or EU do, not really at least - it's not the same rules, market vendors, protocols etc)
Sometimes I need to configure new trading robots for random little thing we want to do automatically and I ask the AI the company is shoving down our throat. It is HOPELESS, literally hopeless. I had to write a review to my manager who will never pass it along up the ladder for fear of their response that was absolutely destructive. It cannot understand the code let alone write some, it cannot write the tests, it cannot generate configuration, it cannot help in anything. It's always wrong, it never gets it, it doesn't know what the fuck these 20 different repos of thousands of files are and how they connect to each other, why it's in so many languages, why it's so quirky sometimes.
Should we change it all to make it AI compatible, or give up ? Fuck do I know... When I started working on it 7 years ago coming from little startups doing little things, it took me a few weeks to totally get the philosophy of it all and be productive. It's really not that hard, it's just really really really really large, so you have to embrace certain ways of working (for instance, you'll do bugs, and you'll find them too late, and you'll apologize in post mortems, dont be paralized by it). AIs costing all that money to be so dumb and useless, are disappointing :(
I guess I assumed that it's not highly relevant to the task, but I suppose it depends on interpretation. E.g. if someone tells the bus driver to smile while he drives, it's hopefully clear that actually driving the bus is more important than smiling.
Having experimented with similar config, I found that Claude would adhere to the instructions somewhat reliably at the beginning and end of the conversation, but was likely to ignore during the middle where the real work is being done. Recent versions also seem to be more context-aware, and tend to start rushing to wrap up as the context is nearing compaction. These behaviors seem to support my assumption, but I have no real proof.
It's certainly something that has people worried. I suspect a population decline and unbalanced demographics with too many old people per working age person are pretty much guaranteed. But personally I don't think it will be catastrophic civilisation level collapse. But at some point things will rebalance and turn the other way as resources, housing and such become more abundant.
I'm also hopeful we sort out the problems with big tech eventually. I was initially against it, but I'm starting to think Australia's plan to ban under 16s from social media is actually a very good idea.
We know that OpenAI is verz good at least in one thing: generating hype. When Sora was announced everyone thought that this will be revolutionary. Look at how it looks like in production. Same when they started floating rumours that they have some AGI prototype in their labs.
They are the Tesla of the IT world, overpromise and under deliver.
It's a brilliant marketing model. Humans are inherently highly interested in anything which could be a threat to their well-being. Everything they put out is a tacit promise that the viewer will soon be economically valueless.
I hope people will come to the realisation that we have created a good plagiarizer at best. The "intelligence" originates from the human beings who created the training data for these LLMs. The hype will die when reality hits.
Hype is very interesting. The concept of Hyperstition describes fictions that make themselves real. In this sense, hype is an essential part of capitalism:
"Capitalization is [...] indistinguishable from a commercialization of potentials, through which modern history is slanted (teleoplexically) in the direction of ever greater virtualization, operationalizing science fiction scenarios as integral components of production systems." [0]
"Within capitalist futures markets, the non-actual has effective currency. It is not an "imaginary" but an integral part of the virtual body of capital, an operationalized realization of the future." [1]
This corresponds to the idea that virtual is opposed to actual, not real.
Religion too. Those that are told a prophecy is to come, have a lot of incentive to fulfill that prophecy. Human belief systems are strange and interesting because (IMO) of the entanglement of beliefs with identity
Russia is putting everything it has to the Ukrainian front since 2.5 years and signs of exhaustion are clearly visible. They have lived up their Soviet tank reserves, are offering astronomical amounts of money for soldiers, are using north Korean ammunition, huge inflation etc
> it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees.
Yes, and this point has been obvious to many for the last two years.
The problem has been the west drip feeding aid into the largest war since WW2. We actually have to define the objective as reclaiming all Ukranian territory (at least to the pre-2022 borders) and supply them appropriately. It might be expensive in the short-term but we can afford it, can seize the $300B of Russian assets, and will be able to reduce our defensive forces in the future use to the reduced Russian threat.
The problem now is that we may have run out of time with Ukraine experiencing significant manpower issues. They could mobilise a lot more people, but that will mean women and younger men (currently only 25+) from a generation that is already very thin.
We can ask Ukraine to do this, but we they will need an ironclad commitment that we will supply them with everything they ask for.
The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately, to get Russia closer to a total collapse rather than a quick loss for them to retreat and build up their strength again for the next 20ish years to repeat it.
I have heard this argument before, but I'm not particularly convinced.
Either way pretty much all their pre-war modern equipment has already been destroyed. Now they're fighting with really old stuff like T-55s pulled from storage, newly manufactured equipment, or whatever North Korea thinks it can spare.
Your impression of Russia's war capabilities is vastly mistaken.
"According to Joseph Fitsanakis, professor of intelligence and security studies at Coastal Carolina University, “Russian military production is currently outpacing that of the US and all of NATO member states combined. This may be hard to believe, but Russia is obligated to do it if it is going to outpace the support given to Ukraine."
It shouldn’t be surprising that a country with a war economy has a higher first derivative at producing material, the question of import is
1. What is the difference between absolute quantities comparing against all relevant players,
2. How long would it take to bridge the gap at current production rates, and
3. Can that rate of production be sustained long enough for it to alter any fundamentals?
The point to rebut isn’t that Russia is making more, it’s whether they can continue to do so ongoingly before Ukrainian advances, regime falter or economic collapse, US/China step-in, or internal unrest will dramatically weaken or make the current Russian negotiating position untenable.
Love the "first derivative" view! One can take a snapshot of a good day, but if russia really was producing more weapons than USA + NATO for a prolonged time, having also more people, Ukraine would fall a long time ago.
It didn't. As we say in Poland "paper will accept everything". And russia is known for shameless propaganda.
So far, Russia is still making gains on the battlefield though, not Ukraine. At some point, that momentum would have to reverse.
Also, I don't think it's an "until" about China stepping in, they seem to be squarely on Russia's side, just presenting themselves slightly more moderate in public to appear suitable as a mediator. (Maybe sort of like the US does with Israel)
Finally, there is BRICS and some massive shifts of attitude in Africa that seem to work in Russia's favor.
> So far, Russia is still making gains on the battlefield though, not Ukraine.
This is again first derivative. Russia annexed Crimea, sent unofficial troops to Donbas, in 2022 moved rapidly and captured a lot of territory... But later was pushed back severely. And after that, it was gaining terrain in a truly snail pace.
BTW India and China are in an ongoing border conflict, the hostilities don't end there, with India banning many Chinese apps for example. They're nowhere near as united as EU or NATO, it's more like the Visegrád Group.
Do Americans have the technical expertise for a higher curvature? The American primary/secondary schooling system sucks, and most of the top STEM students at university are not interested in working for the military.
Both sides are aching (very badly) for this thing to be over, or at least taken off the stove.
One can quibble further as to the details -- which are a matter of metrics, wildcards, politics. And (as recent events have shown) there are still many cards to be played.
But that's the fundamental equation we need to keep in mind.
Yes, by pushing to reduce the drafting age, which the Ukrainian don't want to, because someone needs to raise families and Ukraine has a way lower population, while Putin brings in north koreans already. And can also escalate by general mobilisation at some point if cornered. So I don't see the outcome as clear.
Their "production" includes restoring stuff from the soviet equipment bases. When they make stuff from scratch, they are as much drip-feeding as west is, or even less - for example they make 6-8 Su-34s a year, while Lockmart is making 156 F-35s a year.
I partly agree, in that by drip feeding Ukraine supplies we have given Russia time to build up their production rates. And my earlier comment was disputing the idea that drip feeing the supplies was some kind of intentional strategy.
With regards to the broader claim that Russian production is outpacing that of the west. Yes, with artillery shells that's probably true, though we are continuing to ramp production. There aren't really any other areas though where a combination of western production + stock drawdowns couldn't supply Ukraine with greater quantities of material.
That doesn't make sense. The minerals don't disappear just because Putin fails invading Ukraine. The minerals will be waiting in the ground no matter what.
I don't think US and friends would have any problem with them having a successful economy if they didn't use it to attack and threaten other countries.
Yes. Given their fall in Syria one might assume they are getting close to a breaking point. But it’s difficult to know for sure as they lie at every step of the process, even to themselves.
Syria is Russia's backyard! It is not culturally close like Ukraine, but Syria has been an ally of the Soviet Union and Russia for decades through the Assad family.
Nevertheless, Russia clearly chose to stop their support; the Assad regime was cooked.
Things are not based on history anymore. It atleast as much as we might think. Russia just took a trip to Afghanistan to try build relations and encoporate a way to utilize Afghanistan. Historically this would make no sense since they have a bad history between each other out of all the countries in the region Afghanistan was the own Russia couldn't possess or influence in the past. That being said Russian lost many battles against Afghanistan against the very same government today "taliban".
>Syria has been an ally of the Soviet Union and Russia for decades through the Assad family
I realize that and I realize that this outcome is bad for Moscow, but the Nazis (and others, e.g., the Turks) went through Ukraine to invade Russia whereas no one has ever gone through Syria to get at Russia, so I would expect Moscow to care less about whether the government of Syria is aligned with Moscow than whether the government of Ukraine is aligned with Moscow.
This is giving too much credit to the competence of the same political leadership that has spent the last 30 years dismantling the European war machine(that was pretty solid up until the mid 90s) while Russia and China has been arming themselves to the teeth.
I concur, the slow drip feeding is adequately explained by coming from a place of war ineptitude and domestic priorities rather than a conscious strategy.
I agree with this. russia is being lured into continued commitment by giving it a chance. I'm unusually impressed with how American intelligence played russia in this conflict. Of course there's another reason: russia is a nuclear power, and even though everyone seems used to its threats and makes nothing of it, a nuclear war is an absolutely terrible threat, possibly wiping entire humanity if it fails to endure nuclear winter. As a result, America/NATO is doing a dance, where it waits for russia to do something morally wrong, then respond to it with escalation, ready to criticize and sanction on moral grounds all russia's allies if they decide to respond with (political) support to russia. We're quite successful in my opinion, the escalation of the west is validated throughout the world, and the response to it on the russia's side wouldn't be, and would result in stronger sanctions.
Had all the escalations of the recent 2 years be condensed to the first month of war, BRICS (and not only, e.g. the pope was quite supportive of russia, not sure if he still is) could unite and coordinate a response, and the west could possibly lose the war in the political sense, kind of like Israel lost it. I'm not putting an equal sign between Israel and Ukraine, but who would predict a few years ago common harsh criticisms against Israel in mainstream TV?
Israel and Ukraine are rather different in that it is hard to have much sympathy for Russia as they are the ones who chose to invade and they could go home any time they get fed up. The palestinians don't have that option.
Personally I think the west should have been firmer early on that the Russian invasion was unacceptable and they should go or be forced out. Instead they were kind of wishy washy.
> The purpose of the drip feeding is, unfortunately,
Absolutely not, it's not intentional.
- Suddenly, the world defense base needed to get on up to a level to match the world's 5th largest army, with all its stockpiles -- regardless of if its just lil ol Ukraine, Russia is putting its full effort in.
- Politics in US delayed it several months, I can't recall the exact number, but it was at least 6.
The war has been going on for a bit more than a thousand days now.
Your points would have been valid maybe one year into the war. Unless you’re suggesting the US military industrial complex takes three years to respond.
Quick reminder that Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, before that they invaded Georgia and before that they took Chechnia. And yet even now the popular belief in the West is that the war in Ukraine will be the end of it and that some sort of a peace deal can hold.
One report from early in the first Trump administration (possibly apocryphal) was when Trump was being briefed about NATO commitments to defend all member countries. Trump supposedly was surprised that the US was committed to going to war with Russia if they invaded Latvia. The Baltic countries are very exposed and could be reached by land only through a narrow gap with Poland.
Something I've always been confused about is where are these Russian assets to seize? Are there just yachts sitting off the coast of Ukraine? Russian investments in businesses? Or, would it come after a peace deal where the Russian government pays reparations for the war?
In terms of manpower, weapon types, domains of warfare, quantity of equipment, global impact, and national security implications-Ukraine is the largest.
In total violent deaths, 2nd Congo is worse. Let’s hope the war ends before that happens again
But Trump winning means Zelenskyy can scale down his ambitions (about reclaiming all of Ukranian territory) and not lose face, "well, the #####s reelected that Putin-fan in USA, so this is the best we can get now.", and conveniently for Putin it's also a way to get out of the expected walk into the Kyiv-Park that turned out into 3 years of quagmire: he can say "The goal all along was to secure Crimea and access to the Black Sea, get out the миссия выполнена banner!".
So your answer is that we in the west “solve” the problem of Ukrainians dying defending their home by letting them be tortured, raped and murdered by Russians, unimpeded, in “peacetime” instead?
I would buy you munitions and send you personally on the battlefield, that would be a proper answer to support your cause that wouldn't violate anyone else's preference.
what were the options given? Boris Johnson didn’t allow ukraine to negotiate with russia but at the time everybody thought it would be a walk in the park for NATO
Please don't do flamewars on HN, regardless of how wrong someone else is or you feel they are. You both broke the site guidelines badly in this thread.
Please don't do flamewars on HN, regardless of how wrong someone else is or you feel they are. You both broke the site guidelines badly in this thread.
> are you saying that CNN knows about the conditions and preferences of Ukrainians better than Ukrainians in Kiyv?
I'm saying CNN knows more about the conditions and preferences of the Ukrainian people than you do. I've yet to see a shred of evidence for any of your insinuations.
> When you prove to me that Ukraine wants a peace agreement that involves Russia annexing the entire country to be their personal torture chamber.
Try again. Your post only suggests a slight majority of Kyiv residents want a "ceasefire." That's not "capitulation."
I'll let you know that I'm British so I'm familiar with news papers/sites putting up polls that tell the reader what they want the reader to hear so, just like you disregard sources, I disregarded this straw poll.
guess what, your post suggests nothing but cnn and Zelensky opinions, the latter is legally expired as a president, by the way.
> I'm British so I'm familiar with news papers/sites putting up polls that tell the reader what they want
Exactly my point, you're a delusional member of the delusional society that somehow believes that the poll in Kiyv isn't indicative of the people's preference not to exchange their lives for land anymore.
Are you sure about that? When Russia annexed Crimea firing a couple of shots in 2014, we couldn't see all that horror you talk about, so I don't think it would be what would happen. In fact, there's a lot of people in Eastern Ukraine that has been hoping for Russia to start this military operation.
OTOH, we have records of killings and rapes by American military personnel in Iraq when the US invaded the country back in 2003. And they did that unimpeded. Maybe you supported that invasion.
> No, you're not sure. You don't know what happened there, as it was not possible to conduct a serious investigation, and I'm not sure we will ever know.
Yes, I am 100% sure because the reporting was widespread, accurately conducted, and the Russians were widely condemned.
It's time to double down and hope Russia gives up Crimea like they just abandoned Syria. Even Donald Trump is not stupid enough to miss an opportunity to play his enemies against one another.
This is the result of allies helping Ukraine I don’t think they have any interest in Ukraine, but the alternative is Russia seizing Ukraine. This would have been possible 6 months after the war started. Remember that more than half of Ukrainians are not technically supporting zelensky. This conflict like many others is over complicated yet it's simplified in the west.
> Remember that more than half of Ukrainians are not technically supporting zelensky.
This is normal in any political system, even during times of war. The UK during WWII still had many Labour MPs, meaning a significant portion of the British electorate did NOT support Churchill by definition. However, most people were united in their opposition to the Nazis.
That didn’t stop them voting out Churchill the first chance they got once the war was over.
I don’t think anyone is seriously naive enough to think the entirety of Ukraine loves Zelenskyy without reservation, however its clear that the Ukrainian people have no desire to let the Russians expand their campaign of torture, rape and murder throughout the country.
What do you mean with not technically supporting Zelensky? Do they not want to resist Russia like he does? Or do they prefer someone else to do it instead?
The Ukrainian "Losses of the Russian military" figures are quite impressive. Currently showing 750,000 personnel, 9500 tanks, 21000 artillery systems. Obviously the numbers are something of a guess but it's a lot. A recent update: https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1h9c3dt/losses_of_...
I really have hopes that they can reach a ceasefire and that Ukraine can come into NATO to prevent further Russian aggression. Ideally let those Ukrainians who want to enter the “new” Ukraine. I think Putin is of the mind that he has to win something or his role as Russian dictator has a very short life expectancy, and he is quite desperate. I don’t think he will give up any of the land that Russia has acquired though.
Because your luggage is not checked at all. I'm sure that a state level actor could circumvent TSA but an amateur could not, and they pose a huge threat too, see the recent bombing attempt at the Tailor Swift concert or the Trump assassination attempt
This will be a no go for more and more large companies.
We just had a major incident because someone accidentally uploaded our codebase via a VS code extension, lawyers, everything involved. I expect that non local AI tools will be banned soon.
Think about it, what 3rd party tool would you let scrape your whole codebase and send it to their server?
Makes total sense, and sorry to hear about the incident. At the moment, closed source models are the only viable way to generate high quality diagrams. Once that changes, we'd prefer to switch to open source too for many of the reasons you mentioned.
When you work with a large codebase which have a very high complexity level, then the bugs put in there by AI will not worth the cost of the easily added features.