As much as I dislike mosquitoes and know they're a health hazard, this is a horrible idea. A whole bunch of insectivores rely on mosquitoes as a primary food source. A single bat can eat it's own body weight in mosquitoes in one night. They really do play an important part in most ecosystems. There are some fairly serious negative consequences to this that really seem to be being downplayed or ignored in the name of public safety.
They're only targeting a single species of mosquito. Other species will quickly move in to fill the same niche so the impact should be minimal. Sure it's risky, but the reward is significant.
The math does not work out. Hybridization happens rarely. To affect another species, hybridization would need to happen on a large enough scale that the hybrid population increases, despite the fact that the hybrid species becomes sterile after a few generations. The hybrid species would also need to out compete the other species, again, before the hybrid species dies out because of the genetic modifications.
I don't know what math you're referring to, but the possibility of adaptive introgression strikes me to be non-negligible, especially given that it has specifically been observed in mosuitoes under selective pressure from pesticides...
Hybridization rates are not static. What's more, hybrid mosquitoes would in no way be limited to mating with other hybrid mosquitoes.
Consider that this gene drive diminishes the female mosquito's ability to feed on blood. I'd expect it be possible that this would cause modified female mosquitoes to be maladapted in other ways. If modified female mosquitoes were to experience significant additional stress, the adult sex ratio in modified mosquitoes could shift dramatically toward an overbalance of modified males.
If this were to happen, don't you see how it could increase pressure on males to outbreed? E.g. if a large proportion of their natural mates were either dead or malnourished? Similarly, can you see how the same kind of situation might emerge for the hybrids, increasing the likelihood of backcrossing?
A gene drive that specifically disrupts the females' ability to survive seems like it would increase the likelihood of introgression, potentially by a lot.
This whole situation just strikes me as highly unpredictable, risky and poorly understood.
Thank you for the rational comment. I found some of your other posts in this discussion to be emotional enough to make me not take them seriously (although I agree with the need for being cautious with GM). A post like the one above carries a lot more weight than "makes me sick" type comments. It's an emotive subject for sure, but straying too much from a rational tone can be counterproductive.
There have been no cases of GMO vegetable or animal tissue resulting in abnormal digestion when consumed. The nutrients are the same, and genetically modified organisms don't have any additional toxins (unless they have been specifically engineered to secrete completely new substances).
What possible negative consequences are there, that are worse then the current status quo? Even with conservative estimates we are at around half a million death by malaria every year.
>If mosquitoes went extinct: Mosquito larvae are very important in aquatic ecology. Many other insects and small fish feed on them and the loss of that food source would cause their numbers to decline as well. Anything that feeds on them, such as game fish, raptorial birds, etc. would in turn suffer too.
Mosquitoes and their lavae are a primary food source for muliple bird, mammal and fish species.
I am aware of that, but that as a worst case would be completely acceptable in my eyes as it prevents the death of so many people. A chain reaction of multiple other species going extinct, how ever realistic this is, would still be alot better then the current status quo. The only thing I could see was a permanent damage to the ability of these regions to produce food. For which I have seen no realistic hypothesis yet.
But there are people out here who think they're so smart: to hell with the big picture, to hell with ecology, to hell even with consensus and consent. They are certain that they know what's best for the planet, for sexually reproducing life forms in general, and for humans. So they are forging ahead whether you or I like it or not.
