In that case 0.3 would be more wrong than 0.4 and less wrong than 0.2. The close... | Hacker News

Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit

		jefftk on Sept 2, 2023 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: A GPT-4 capability forecasting challenge In that case 0.3 would be more wrong than 0.4 and less wrong than 0.2. The closer your predictions are to reality over a bunch of questions, the better you understand reality.

layer8 on Sept 2, 2023 [–]

You can’t really say that for a single data point. The 0.3 may be completely correct. Now, if you try ten times, things might be different.

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact