>War is avoided if one party is so strong that an attack is futile.
Did you mean to write 'if both parties are so strong an attack is futile'? A stronger party can always attack a weaker party if it feels it has more to gain than lose by doing so. The US was briefly the only party in a position to do that, but there's clearly an interest by regional powers to expand their territory. I see the invasion of Ukraine as an excellent example of that.
In that light, supporting an insurgency against economic rivals seems like a pretty decent strategy - done well it can make the cost of invading a weaker rival unpalatable on all sides, without contributing to the praetorian guard problem.
The trouble I think becomes, it's possible to pull the smaller party's backers into a situation where it can be an avenue to wage economic war against them. The petrodollar is essentially over at this point, in large part because of how the Ukraine war shaped out. Supporting the smaller side in an asymmetric war is traditionally more capital efficient than being the larger party, but that isn't obviously the case in Ukraine. I'm definitely watching this space.
I think that's a fair correction - and its true that the Ukraine war has shattered a lot of assumption about western involvement in asymmetric conflict.
Did you mean to write 'if both parties are so strong an attack is futile'? A stronger party can always attack a weaker party if it feels it has more to gain than lose by doing so. The US was briefly the only party in a position to do that, but there's clearly an interest by regional powers to expand their territory. I see the invasion of Ukraine as an excellent example of that.
In that light, supporting an insurgency against economic rivals seems like a pretty decent strategy - done well it can make the cost of invading a weaker rival unpalatable on all sides, without contributing to the praetorian guard problem.
The trouble I think becomes, it's possible to pull the smaller party's backers into a situation where it can be an avenue to wage economic war against them. The petrodollar is essentially over at this point, in large part because of how the Ukraine war shaped out. Supporting the smaller side in an asymmetric war is traditionally more capital efficient than being the larger party, but that isn't obviously the case in Ukraine. I'm definitely watching this space.