> - These conditions are unpredictable and have little warning
Not true at all. The vast vast majority of turbulence incidents are very well predictable. It's not 1930 anymore.
> - The conditions that lead to uncomfortable or dangerous turbulence are not at all uncommon.
Except your flawed logic in the previous point flows to this point. The question isn't turbulence but unpredictable severe turbulence which is much rarer. About 1 per million flights I think which is far from common.
> A smart, independently minded person, would do the following risk analysis:
Given the flaws in the risks analysis I find this sentence hilarious.
"The vast vast majority of turbulence incidents are very well predictable."
On the large scale, yes, on the scale that causes a plane to drop a meter at very short notice, no they aren't. If they were, I wouldn't have been in planes that dropped a meter without any warning. Your "1 per million flights" is probably based on statistics relating to reported injury (correct me if I'm wrong). Those statistics would be skewed by many factors, not least people wearing seatbelts.
I've flown probably around a few hundred times. I've experienced uncomfortable (spilt drinks, rollercoaster feelings) probably about ten times. I've had actual dangerous turbulence (both times, as you say, with warning) twice. Once into Frankfurt, once into Singapore.
On a couple of flights the turbulence warning from the flight crew has come through after the initial experience of turbulence.
I'm not saying we're not good at detecting it, and I'm not saying it's super common, but your one in a million number is wishful thinking.
By the way, I actually love flying, and I still regard it as an incredibly safe way to travel, but wearing a seatbelt is still a good idea.
They do. I've flown many (more than 100x in some years) and I can't count how many times that pilot / co-pilot has announced upcoming turbulence and turned on the seat beat light.
Not true at all. The vast vast majority of turbulence incidents are very well predictable. It's not 1930 anymore.
> - The conditions that lead to uncomfortable or dangerous turbulence are not at all uncommon.
Except your flawed logic in the previous point flows to this point. The question isn't turbulence but unpredictable severe turbulence which is much rarer. About 1 per million flights I think which is far from common.
> A smart, independently minded person, would do the following risk analysis:
Given the flaws in the risks analysis I find this sentence hilarious.