The biggest deterrence for a Taiwan invasion is the worlds reaction (or half-hearten reaction) to what is happening in Ukraine. When the West lacks the spirit to help Ukraine win, what chance does Taiwan have?
China realizes that there will be little to no fall out in the invasion of Taiwan and any reaction from the West will be limited and short lived. Russia has shown them the way and they can count on the support of Russia, Iran, North Korea and many, many other countries.
The Leaders and people of Taiwan have said the same thing.
Russia has energy independence and food security. China has neither. The kind of sanctions Russia has gotten would hurt China far more.
You can’t effectively blockade Russia. A blockade against China would be devastating. No, they can’t get enough food and fossil fuels through Russia. There is no substitute for ocean shipping at those scales.
And while western support for Ukraine hasn’t been stable, you can’t say it’s not there. Especially given recent events.
Ukraine isn’t even all that important to the west. Taiwan is absolutely critical.
China may act tough but I think what they’re seeing from Ukraine is terrifying them.
Also interesting to see that Ukraine, with no real navy, is effectively disabling all of Russias navy in the Black Sea with sea drones. Guess what Taiwan is building now?
I don’t think a crossing of the strait will be even remotely possible in a decade from now. Nothing with men on board will be able to cross successfully. Drone swarms won’t help China disable defences on Taiwan because they will be shot down by lasers.
They’d have to bomb the entire island to rubble, which they hesitate to do because most of Taiwan is of the same ethnicity as the Chinese. Wouldn’t help keeping the west and Chinas anxious neighbours complacent either.
Not really, but if Russia is successful they will control the largest portion of World Grain Markets (30-40%). But that is not as important as semiconductors. I also imagine the threat their victory in Ukraine would pose to the Europe is not important either considering they would use Ukraine and any of it's resources by adding it to their own.
Were you alive during the USSR? Do you not recall the threat of the Russian Empire around the world? It is their plan to recreate that Empire again.....
