I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs.
If they send enough engineers over, we won’t actually learn how to make the chips. Then when the next election happens they can re-evaluate.
If China invades in the next four years, I guess… I dunno, at least they’ll have gotten some people out. It is a pretty bad situation, I guess they are just doing what they can.
The US will NOT engage in a hot war against China for Taiwan, that's for certain, regardless of who is president at that time. Why would they risk nuclear war for a bunch of people who are really far away from the US continent?
I think establishing a blockade is generally considered an act of war. Possibly a war crime if the intent is to starve civilians? (Not sure, this is way outside my wheelhouse). I’d expect it to be about as escalatory as using US ships to attack the mainland, more or less.
Is the history of China any more famine stricken than any other region if the world? In recent history (last two centuries) maybe, but before that? Typically you don't become the worlds most populous country by having frequent famines.
It’s not so much the people or the land, but rather what they can build. It’s the whole essence of the article. Not sure how far behind the West would fall if TSMC was controlled by the CCP. 5 years? 10?
But it’s in Taiwans interest for us to continue to provide them arms, training, and build regional alliances to pressure China.
I’m also not as convinced the US wouldn’t respond, but it would depend on South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and ASEAN nations to call for such action — if they felt threatened enough by China’s actions in taking Taiwan and Philippine islands to declare war themselves.
Edit:
Including article discussing blowing up fabs and Taiwanese response that cutting off ASML and similar would be just as effective.
Nah. You're not thinking this through. That'd start WW3. China considers Taiwan as a province of theirs. Bombing anything in Taiwan by the US would be the same as bombing China itself to the Chinese government. If the US bombs China, expect China to declare war on the US. Have fun getting drafted in the military.
Not to mention it's the quickest way for Taiwanese people to completely turn on the US.
If the key thing is to avoid China getting access to TSMC plants, I'm sure there are ways to do it without risking US troops. The West would have to live with inferior Intel nodes for a while, but it would be better than anything China could produce.
I assumed deterrence was in place and the chance of a taiwan invasion was quite low. After this week the chance of a taiwan invasion seems quite likely.
The U.S. absolutely defends Taiwan because losing it isn’t an option!
Taiwan currently produces over 85% of the world’s advanced semiconductors. Letting China take Taiwan would hand the CCP control over the global tech supply chain, crippling the U.S. economy and military. That’s a non starter.
No nation with anything to lose will be using nukes..EVER. The game has been understood for 75 years: mutual destruction means no winners. The U.S. has more nukes, better missiles, and full second-strike capability. China knows this, so nukes aren’t on the table.
The U.S. doesn’t need to invade just stop China’s invasion. Amphibious assaults are the hardest military operation, and China has zero real world experience in them or in fighting hot wars at all. We only need to sink their fleet or disrupt shipping to and from their ports. They know the risk, which is why they haven’t tried.
Now 5 years form now if we are much less dependent on them for semi-conductors that is a different story, but the realities of today. For now? Yeah, we throw down.
Also there is the scenario where China co-opts or influences Taiwans elections such that leadership moves back to a pro China stance. Not impossible, that would really put the US in a bind and I am not sure what would happen then but military engagements would seem much less likely.
Losing Taiwan is an option, and that's exactly the problem. It's not American territory, and China knows they can force America's hand by dominating their navy. If you can neutralize America's will to fight with DF-21s from standoff range, you can bring them to the table for negotiations. American troops have better things to die for than the supply chain of the iPhone 17.
To be honest this is a really immature depiction of the conflict, especially for a site like HN. China has demonstrated their willingness and capability to stage a credible naval assault, if you're still skeptical then I think you're blinded by jingoist ambition. Taiwan is a long ways from home, America can't deter China just with their surface fleet.
> I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them
I think every sensible ally of the US would now be developing (if they haven't already) contingency plans for any scenario in which they might get embroiled in that would (under previously agreed terms) require an ally to support them. Who can believe in an unconditional military alliance, when the US government is so nakedly prioritising economic transactionalism, even at the expense of their own long-term security (there's a reason countries get into alliances). This US government's handling of the Ukraine situation will undoubtedly turn out to have been the biggest geopolitical footgun for many a decade.
I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs.
I think the Ukraine situation already signaled that to Taiwan.
Ultimately, China won't invade as long as Taiwan plays its cards right. China wants to retake Taiwan without firing a single shot and then quickly re-integrate Taiwan. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything to provoke China like inviting Nancy Pelosi or voting in more pro-independence politicians.
I actually think these events decreases the chance of a Chinese invasion but increases the chance of a peaceful reunification because the Taiwanese government will look to rely less on the US and positive impression of the US is decreasing in Taiwan.
The island of Taiwan belonged to China at some point. No political statement needed and no need to rewrite history on HN comments.
Historically, Taiwan was governed by Chinese administrations for a significant period. In 1683, after defeating the Ming loyalists in Taiwan, the Qing dynasty extended its rule over the island, eventually incorporating it as part of its empire. By 1887, Taiwan was officially designated a province of China under Qing rule. However, following the First Sino-Japanese War, Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895. After World War II, Taiwan was placed under the administrative control of the Republic of China. Today, its status remains politically and historically complex, with ongoing debates over sovereignty.
For 200 years China did nothing with Taiwan. The Ming dynasty called it a ball of mud in the water not worth the effort of the Chinese people. The Qing dynasty did not allow anyone to travel to Taiwan because it was too unsafe to travel. The few people in Taiwan were constantly fighting with the local population. They failed to rule or control Taiwan. For 7 years prior to Japan invading they decided to call it a province. Despite having no control over it. Japan even said they were not convinced Taiwan belonged to China because there was next to nothing there, they put up no fight, and fled before Japan arrived. The PRC also called Taiwan an independent nation and advocated for Taiwan independence until the 1940s when the ROC took control of the island as the request of the allied forces who requested ROC administer Taiwan until they decided what to do with the island, because no one was convinced it ever belonged to China to begin with.
Taiwan is under the administration of the government which ruled China then — and has continued to rule Taiwan since before the revolution led by the CCP. That’s why their official name is the “Republic of China”.
The CCP never controlled Taiwan: it remained independent and under the previous regime. So the CCP would need to take Taiwan as their regime never controlled it.
CCP/PRC =! "China". It's a dynasty of China, one of many. Americans aren't generally familiar with the concept of dynasties, but the Europeans would be. When I was in France some years ago, I was told that France went through 2 kingdom phases and 5 republics in it's history, with the current iteration being the 5th Republic of France. The 5th Republic never owned a colony in what's now the US, but some previous iteration of "France" did, until they sold it to the US in the famous "Louisiana purchase". Thus, it is correct to say that "France" used to owned parts of what's now the US. Likewise, it is correct to say that "China" used to own Taiwan", even though the PRC/CCP never did.
Most MSM stories on Taiwan take pains to point out the PRC/CCP have never controlled Taiwan. That is technically correct but intentionally misleading, counting on the (mostly American) readers to not understand the difference between a government/dynasty/regime of a country and the country itself, which has histories extending back beyond the founding of its current regime.
The current demand of China to Taiwan, is that Taiwan must continue to claim itself as a rival regime to the PRC vying to control, and represent, all of China. What will trigger war is formal Taiwan "independence", defined as Taiwan rescinding claims on PRC territories and declaring itself a sovereign country independent from not just the PRC, but the ROC (Republic of China) or any other concept of "China" altogether
> Both consider themselves the temporarily embarrassed rightful heir to the centuries old concept of China.
This is an outdated take that does not reflect the contemporary feelings of the Taiwanese people and at best only describes a facet of KMT party policy. Bear in mind the KMT does not hold a majority in the legislature - they had to form a coalition with a third party to do so - and the president is from the DPP, which explicitly considers Taiwan a sovereign nation and does not buy into the notion that Taiwan is secretly the real China.
With the exception that “take” is technically correct, as the area in question is a remnant of the already existing government which has maintained independence in a cease fire. Both claim the other, but facts still matter. You don’t “retake” an area that was never under your control.
The RoC lost mainland China to the CCP, but the CCP was never the owner of Taiwan.
I think his perspective is: "If the Qing were the Chinese Goverment and they had Taiwan, and the CCP is the Chinese Government does not have Taiwan, so they will be retaking the island".
His conviction speaks to the strength of the CCP narrative that they ARE China though.
I believe allowing China to seize Philippine islands without response was actually the appeasement which escalated the situation. (Along with raiding oil fields, etc of their other neighbors.)
If they send enough engineers over, we won’t actually learn how to make the chips. Then when the next election happens they can re-evaluate.
If China invades in the next four years, I guess… I dunno, at least they’ll have gotten some people out. It is a pretty bad situation, I guess they are just doing what they can.