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I agree they may not and that’s very interesting. As an experienced developer myself I’m starting to think these tools are likely going to increase our market value not decrease it.


It's not implausible that we'll wind up with something like the extremely long-lasting market for COBOL developers. A niche skill that's absolutely essential in a few places, and which can command high salaries as a result... for a few people. Only so many huge legacy banking systems, after all.

The problem, as with COBOL, would be the loss of the existing pipeline that created new competent high-level developers.


IBM just launched a new mainframe with AI accelerators https://www.ibm.com/products/watsonx-code-assistant-z in part to help rewrite production COBOL into Java https://www.ibm.com/products/watsonx-code-assistant-z


"The value of 90% of my skills just dropped to $0. The leverage for the remaining 10% went up 1000x." -- Kent Beck


Sounds fantastic! And it might also help with ageism, when "learned programming long before LLMs" is recognized as a differentiator.

I, for one, welcome this change very much, disastrous as it sounds.




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