They probably get orders from all the way up the food chain to keep the show going.
Honestly I think the same thing happened with self-driving cars ~10 years ago.
Larry Page and Google's "submarine" marketing convinced investors and CEOs of automakers and tech companies [1] that they were going to become obsolete, and that Google would be taking all that profit.
In 2016, GM acquired Cruise for $1 billion or so. It seems like the whole thing was cancelled in 2023, written off, and the CEO was let go
How much profit is Waymo making now? I'm pretty sure it's $0. And they've probably gone through hundreds of billions in funding
How's Tesla Autopilot doing? Larry also "negatively inspired" Elon to start OpenAI with other people
I think if investors/CEOs/automakers had known how it was going to turn out, and how much money they were going to lose 10 years later, they might not have jumped on the FOMO train
But it turns out that AI is a plausible "magic box" that you extrapolate all sorts of economic consequences from
(on the other hand, hype cycles aren't necessarily bad; they're probably necessary to get things done. But I also think this one is masking the fact that software is getting worse and more user hostile at the same time. Probably one of the best ways to increase AI adoption is to make the underlying software more user hostile.)
[1] I think even Apple did some kind of self-driving car thing at one point.
>From 2014 until 2024, Apple undertook a research and development effort to develop an electric and self-driving car,[1] codenamed "Project Titan".[2][3] Apple never openly discussed any of its automotive research,[4] but around 5,000 employees were reported to be working on the project as of 2018.[5] In May 2018, Apple reportedly partnered with Volkswagen to produce an autonomous employee shuttle van based on the T6 Transporter commercial vehicle platform.[6] In August 2018, the BBC reported that Apple had 66 road-registered driverless cars, with 111 drivers registered to operate those cars.[7] In 2020, it was believed that Apple was still working on self-driving related hardware, software and service as a potential product, instead of actual Apple-branded cars.[8] In December 2020, Reuters reported that Apple was planning on a possible launch date of 2024,[9] but analyst Ming-Chi Kuo claimed it would not be launched before 2025 and might not be launched until 2028 or later.[10]
In February 2024, Apple executives canceled their plans to release the autonomous electric vehicle, instead shifting resources on the project to the company's generative artificial intelligence efforts.[11][12] The project had reportedly cost the company over $1 billion per year, with other parts of Apple collaborating and costing hundreds of millions of dollars in additional spend. Additionally, over 600 employees were laid off due to the cancellation of the project.[13]
Please don't post ideological flamebait like this on HN. We've had to ask you repeatedly to observe the guidelines in recent months. Hacker News is only a place where people want to participate because others make an effort to keep the standards up. Please do your part to raise the level, rather than dragging it down. This line from the guidelines is particularly relevant:
Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.
Ahh yes, capitalists noteworthy haters of building trains. If you ignore the private companies that built the NYC subway system(s), all of US freight rail, and invented trains.
It's no coincidence all your examples are over 100 years old lol. The rise of the individual automobile (a very lucrative business proposition in many aspects) was done alongside massive sabotage of competing alternatives, with the disastrous consequences that are today plain.
It's also no coincidence America has built no rail in many decades while centrally planned China built a massive HSR network in the past 15 years.
Surely you don’t think economics is the only difference here. You could even more easily explain it with a lack of property protection in China or the population density along the east coast.
Also, I think Hacker News mostly believed the hype about self-driving cars, with relatively little pushback. Many people were influenced by what the CEOs/investors said, and of course the prospect of jobs and "cool tech"
e.g. in 2018, over 7 years ago, I was simply pointing out that people like Chris Urmson (who had WORKED ON self-driving for decades) and Bill Gurley said self-driving would take 25+ years to deploy (which seems totally accurate now)
Actually I remember some in-person conversations with MUCH MORE push back than that, including from some close friends.
They believed things because they were told by the media it would happen
People told me in 2018 that their 16 year old would not need to learn how to drive, etc. (In 2025, self-driving is not available in even ONE of their end points for a trip, let alone two end points)
Likewise, at least some people are convinced now that "coding as a job is going away" -- some people are even deathly depressed about it
Hacker News goes for anything that they think they might be able to make money off of, just like all middle-class people. They evaluate events based on how they could affect them personally. Actual plausibility isn't even secondary, they simply defer to the salesmen (whom they admire and hope one day to be.)
People believe what they want. Ergo they side with the people who state that those beliefs are true, makes them feel good. Listening to experts who know better and oppose the held beliefs makes the believers feel bad, ergo they won't believe them.
Sometimes it is good to disregard the opinion of experts who are absolutely sure something can't be done, might by a prerequisite to making it happen.
The four minute mile comes to mind.
Beliefs are powerful, they can enable you to reach goals, become prisons of the mind trapping you or become delusions when feedback is disregarded.
I recently watched Not Just Bikes' video on the disastrous future side effects of self-driving cars[0]. Of course it made me think about the massive PR push that made us think they were around the corner, but also about the manufactured consent for these technologies in the first place. Right now this kind of discussion is hitting the mainstream with the 'clanker'[1] backlash. I think it's really obvious to a lot of people that the AI push is not organic and is not based around consumer needs, and this manipulation is making people genuinely angry[2] (ok jreg is a performance artist, but just because something is performative doesn't mean it's not real).
In 2016, GM acquired Cruise for $1 billion or so. It seems like the whole thing was cancelled in 2023, written off, and the CEO was let go
It was shut down because they had a collision that made front page news across the country which was followed by a cover-up. Their production lines were shut down, all revenue operations ceased, and the permits they needed to operate were withdrawn. It's not like the decision was random.
How much profit is Waymo making now? I'm pretty sure it's $0.
Profit is a fuzzy concept for even the most transparent private companies, but Waymo's revenue is likely in the hundreds of millions. They've received around $12B in funding, not hundreds of billions.
Waymo's done 10M rides*.
If we hand wave $10 per ride, that's $100M. Which is way more money than I have, but not all that much. It's still much bigger than $0 though!
That number was originally announced in May. They've completed an additional 3M rides since then if they've done no additional scaling. Their average fares are also closer to $15-20 than $10.
Not really your main point, but Tesla self driving is quite incredible, despite what internet clickbait says. They have a clear path to full autonomy with vision-only systems.
But yeah, certainly 5-7 years behind the initial schedule. Which I guess was more of your point.
You’re still falling for it. They have a clear path to vision-only autonomy IN THE BAY AREA.
Let’s see it work in Minnesota in the winter where you can’t see lane markings, everything is white, and the camera lenses immediately get covered with road salt spray.
What can incremental progress do to make a camera see through road salt deposited on its lens? I call bullshit. There isn't any incremental path because it's not physically possible. The photons are stopped by the salt. No amount of "AI" or what the fuck ever else will change this. There is no path towards "progress" here.
You'll eat your words much sooner than you think. The cameras don't need much clarity to work effectively (they work quite well in intense rain). The main forward camera is behind the windshield already.
Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country
---
(Also, in 2018 I said I'd be the first to buy a car where I could sleep behind the wheel while going from SF to Portland or LA. That obviously doesn't exist now.
Anyone want to take a bet on whether this will be possible in 2032, 7 years from now? I'd bet NO, but we can check in 2032 :-) )
25 years is far fetched. Again, you obviously have a bone to pick because HN disagreed with you, but this obsession with yours is such that you’re no longer making sense. 25 years?? Totally insane.
To be fair, I don't see any sort of technical arguments on either side to justify their claims. You need some clue about its internal design and its current state to make an educated guess about the expected development time. Without that, 25 years is as valid a guess as 5 years. But I won't dismiss any claims outright. I'm all ears if anyone has any explanation to offer.
Honestly I think the same thing happened with self-driving cars ~10 years ago.
Larry Page and Google's "submarine" marketing convinced investors and CEOs of automakers and tech companies [1] that they were going to become obsolete, and that Google would be taking all that profit.
In 2016, GM acquired Cruise for $1 billion or so. It seems like the whole thing was cancelled in 2023, written off, and the CEO was let go
How much profit is Waymo making now? I'm pretty sure it's $0. And they've probably gone through hundreds of billions in funding
How's Tesla Autopilot doing? Larry also "negatively inspired" Elon to start OpenAI with other people
I think if investors/CEOs/automakers had known how it was going to turn out, and how much money they were going to lose 10 years later, they might not have jumped on the FOMO train
But it turns out that AI is a plausible "magic box" that you extrapolate all sorts of economic consequences from
(on the other hand, hype cycles aren't necessarily bad; they're probably necessary to get things done. But I also think this one is masking the fact that software is getting worse and more user hostile at the same time. Probably one of the best ways to increase AI adoption is to make the underlying software more user hostile.)
[1] I think even Apple did some kind of self-driving car thing at one point.