Percentage math doesn't quite work that way. (130% * 90% for gaining 30% and then giving away 10% of that, is 117% not 120%)

But yes. That's the intent.

The "problem" is that OpenAI doesn't have any of the shares yet, and it's unclear how much they actually will get. Right now AMD shareholders have the full +30% gain with none of the loss. But will the +30% gain be wiped out on the news OpenAI won't be buying as many AMD GPUs? Only time can tell.

It's so much worse than that.

The first 0.1% of shareholders to sell would get the full +30%, then the next 0.1% would get ~28%, then the next... and by the time you got down to the last of the initial shareholders trying to liquidate, the price would likely be pennies on the dollar.

This is not value, but hot air.

The value these things represent is based almost entirely on the myth/hype + 401k index fund growth + inflation expectations at this point.

If you don't get dividends or voting power from your shares, all you have left is liquidation rights in the event of a bankruptcy. So, the shares are really worth their share of ~whatever AMD's assets are worth in a bankruptcy.

But, because we trade them in public markets, they're immediately worth whatever someone else will pay. And that's basically much more tethered to myth (and consistent 401k index fund growth + inflation expectations) than to fundamentals at this point.

Right now, 401k funds are buying AMD at this higher share price, with zero due diligence!

So, if growth stops / if job losses explode, then 401k contributions slow down (or reverse!), then markets fall, then margin calls happen, then markets fall more, more job losses...

There's a lot of cash sloshing around in the system from all the 2020s money printing, and there's a perma-buy-the-dip mentality that has come out of this extreme bull market (bubble market), so there is quite some extra resilience; but, the coyote is really going to have a reckoning once it finally looks down...

The shares haven't been issued yet, so there isn't any dilution. Equity holders could sell their holdings now and benefit, because when OAI exercises the option and gets 160m shares for peanuts, they will sell those shares ASAP to bring in cash to pay for their orders of AMD chips.