What kind of crimes does surveillance prevent or help solve?
1) It does not _prevent_ the most serious crimes. People who are going to murder or rape someone are often not mentally capable or understanding how likely they are to get caught or caring about it in the moment. It might help solve it but there's usually more than enough conventional evidence. And these crimes are typically not what people coordinate with others so surveilling communication does not help much.
2) Stealing? Maybe. I can imagine cameras dissuade some opportunists but then again, shoplifting is reportedly high with self-checkouts and those are packed with cameras. Other kinds like burglars will probably just learn to be more careful with gloves and masks. And surveilling communication does not help unless we're talking organized crime and those people should be competent enough to use encrypted comms even if the major platforms are backdoored.
3) Crimes of opportunity like vandalism. Again, cameras are enough, if they work at all. The extra fraction of idiots who would be caught because they brag only about setting a trash can on fire it negligible compared to the downsides.
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What surveillance absolutely could deter and help catch is organized resistance like staging a protest/riot/insurrection or individuals doing research before an assassination.
And that's why politicians, who are the most likely victims of these crimes, want surveillance. And you might genuinely believe that no current politician in your country deserves to be shot or that the current government should not be overthrown.
But we have to keep in mind that the next government will inherit these systems. Nothing is permanent, no democracy will last forever.
Historically, most countries have periods of freedom and authoritarianism, separated by collapse or revolt. At some point, in your country too, people will need to rise up to reassert their rights again.
It's a matter of when, not if.
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I see where you are coming from and there were times in my life where more surveillance would have helped my side but ultimately, it's a balancing act and surveillance tips the scale in favor of people who already have a lot of power.
Semi regularly the police do stop terrorism plots before they happen. And just solving existing crimes is valuable itself. Especially for things like car crime, unless there was a video of it happening there is very little chance you’ll find the perpetrator.
Increasing the chance of criminals getting caught does a lot more for dissuading crime than increasing the penalties. Would you litter if you knew there was a 100% chance of getting a $50 fine?
It’s probably the case that politicians also don’t want to be the ones who blocked the data which would have lead to preventing a terrorist attack. And they get more visibility behind the scenes after taking the job.
Terrorism is barely an inconvenience. Just now in another top HN post, terrorism accounts for less than 0.001% of US deaths. That's percent so less than 1 in 100k. It essentially does not matter. It could increase tenfold and I'd be fine with it.
But the point I am trying to make is that surveillance does not work to stop the crimes people actually care about. Even if your biggest fear is terrorism, surveillance is not gonna stop somebody ramming their car into a crowd. Those who want to create fear have a myriad of ways which cannot be stopped without absolute, total surveillance, which makes any kind of resistance impossible.
I don't wanna live in a society where I have a 10% chance to get caught littering. Not because I wanna litter but because at some point, I might find myself homeless and needing to steal food to not starve. Or I might find myself living in a dictatorship and needing to drone the fucker who's sending my friends/family to a gulag.
Everything has a price. If the price of reducing common crime by 10% reduces the chance of a successful revolution by 20%, then it's not worth it. Because people are only free as long as they revoke their consent. If 50% of the population agree they live in a dictatorship, they should have a way to remove the government, whether by a ballot box or an ammo box.
Nobody wants to talk about the real solution because it involves making all social relations based on consent.
Choosing not just your partners but classmates, teachers, colleagues, and neighbors.
First, it's less efficient. But most importantly, it involves making value judgements of other people - identifying those who cause most conflict in society and not consenting to their interactions with us - not consenting to their participation.
And that's a no-go because we're all supposed to believe we're all equal.
1) It does not _prevent_ the most serious crimes. People who are going to murder or rape someone are often not mentally capable or understanding how likely they are to get caught or caring about it in the moment. It might help solve it but there's usually more than enough conventional evidence. And these crimes are typically not what people coordinate with others so surveilling communication does not help much.
2) Stealing? Maybe. I can imagine cameras dissuade some opportunists but then again, shoplifting is reportedly high with self-checkouts and those are packed with cameras. Other kinds like burglars will probably just learn to be more careful with gloves and masks. And surveilling communication does not help unless we're talking organized crime and those people should be competent enough to use encrypted comms even if the major platforms are backdoored.
3) Crimes of opportunity like vandalism. Again, cameras are enough, if they work at all. The extra fraction of idiots who would be caught because they brag only about setting a trash can on fire it negligible compared to the downsides.
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What surveillance absolutely could deter and help catch is organized resistance like staging a protest/riot/insurrection or individuals doing research before an assassination.
And that's why politicians, who are the most likely victims of these crimes, want surveillance. And you might genuinely believe that no current politician in your country deserves to be shot or that the current government should not be overthrown.
But we have to keep in mind that the next government will inherit these systems. Nothing is permanent, no democracy will last forever.
Historically, most countries have periods of freedom and authoritarianism, separated by collapse or revolt. At some point, in your country too, people will need to rise up to reassert their rights again.
It's a matter of when, not if.
---
I see where you are coming from and there were times in my life where more surveillance would have helped my side but ultimately, it's a balancing act and surveillance tips the scale in favor of people who already have a lot of power.