100%; and if you have a solid structure in your modular monolith - it's trivial to take one or two problematic/performance sensitive modules and turn them into independent services. But most of the systems will never get up to this scale
Right. Launch it, get customers, see what needs to be scaled up, buy a new server, and only then, carve out that problematic piece and scale it as a separate service. But by then you have the data to justify it and you have sidestepped a lot of complexity.