What happens when this bubble pops? I am trying to avoid any time or financial investment in AI as I look around the corner. I am also looking back at the last big bubble. I got my first house for $129k at 2800sqft when the housing bubble popped. There were just so many empty houses available.
So now I am wondering what will be available once the AI investment implodes. I am thinking about computer hardware, available cloud infrastructure employees for hire on the cheap, and more.
I am also looking at the consequences for the incumbents reliant on both AI and cloud that either cannot pay their bills or who fail because their service providers no longer exist. I can’t help but see lots of opportunity on the horizon.
I'm also interested in this question, am not interested in profiting just curious about the future. Other HN users gave these answers:
"If the price of inference drops through the floor all the AI wrapper companies become instantly more valuable. Cursor's agents suck ...but their position would get much better with cheap inference." (edited)
"Buy the application layer near winners. When computing costs shrink, usage expands."
"massive Oracle Crypto Farm"
So the answer seems to be: 1. look at what is being priced out now, as this will be cheaper later. 2. Assume the big players will shrink and the smaller players will grow.
If crypto fills the gap I think we could also see a devaluation in coins?
If the data centres stop using so much electricity, will supply of electricity increase and so the costs will decrease?
Personally I'm looking forward to cheaper consumer GPU cards.
They're trying to increase their "compute capacity" over 5 years but aiming for the same cost and energy consumption. It's a drive for some buildout combined with hardware/algorithm efficiency improvements.
They're not trying to build double the data centers every 6 months. But Ars likes the "economic collapse" narrative because I guess their journalist spends too much time on social media.
If a recession comes it likely won't come from AI anyway, and anyhow nothing will happen to these huge tech companies.
If it collapses, lenders will own (in general) giant tip-up buildings with two separate substations tied to two different utility circuits, a shitload of generators and UPSes, a shitload of chillers and cooling towers, and miles of cable tray. Plus whatever computing hardware is inside.
I assume the excess electrical and HVAC gear would be stripped out and sold before converting the tip-up building into another yet another Amazon distribution center.
It’s not particularly useful infrastructure, unlike all of the dark fiber laid during the dotcom boom.
With a quick search, it looks like some ai datacenters are not designed/built with hyperscaler grade reliability in mind so the would have to be upgraded for that purpose.
We are pushing the envelope in serving this compute with cost-efficient, reliable power. The Atlanta site was selected with resilient utility power in mind and is capable of achieving 4×9 availability at 3×9 cost. By securing highly available grid power, we can also forgo traditional resiliency approaches for the GPU fleet (such as on-site generation, UPS systems and dual-corded distribution), driving cost savings for customers and faster time-to-market for Microsoft.
So now I am wondering what will be available once the AI investment implodes. I am thinking about computer hardware, available cloud infrastructure employees for hire on the cheap, and more.
I am also looking at the consequences for the incumbents reliant on both AI and cloud that either cannot pay their bills or who fail because their service providers no longer exist. I can’t help but see lots of opportunity on the horizon.