> Three years into the generative-AI wave, demand for the technology looks surprisingly flimsy.
Lets compare to the adoption of the internet. Mosaic was released in 1993. Businesses adopted the internet progressively during the 90s, starting slow but accelerating toward the decade's end with broad adoption of the internet as a business necessity by 2000.
Three years is a ridiculously small amount of time for businesses to make dramatic changes.
Ironically, you're making the point you mean to be arguing against.
The dot-com bubble didn't form and burst because the technology or opportunity of the web wouldn't be revolutionary. It formed and burst because investment grossly outpaced how fast the technology could mature into commercial value. That's pretty much what we're seeing here.
LLM's, diffusion, etc are radical new avenues for technology and probably will have made a huge impact on society and business when we look back in 20 years, but investors desperate for high yield in an otherwise stagnating economy flooded the engine, betting as though these dramatic changes would happen immediately rather than gradually.
Unsurprisingly, to people who didn't put their chips on the table at all, this all-in bet on immediacy is proving more and more to be a losing one.
Lets compare to the adoption of the internet. Mosaic was released in 1993. Businesses adopted the internet progressively during the 90s, starting slow but accelerating toward the decade's end with broad adoption of the internet as a business necessity by 2000.
Three years is a ridiculously small amount of time for businesses to make dramatic changes.