Following similar thinking, there's no world in which AI becomes exactly capable of replacing all software developers and then stops there, miraculously saving the jobs of everyone else next to and above them in the corporate hierarchy. There may be a human, C-suite driven cost-cutting effort to pause progress there for some brief time, but if AI can do all dev work, there's no reason it can't do all office work to replace every human in front of a keyboard. Either we're all similarly affected, or else AI still isn't good enough, in which case fleets of programmers are still needed, and among those, the presumed "helpfulness" of AI will vary wildly. Not unlike what we see already.
> if AI can do all dev work, there's no reason it can't do all office work to replace every human in front of a keyboard
There are plenty of reasons.
Radiologists aren’t being replaced by AI because of liability. Same for e.g. civil engineers. Coders don’t have liability for shipping shit code. That makes switching to an AI that’s equally blameless easier.
Also, data: the web is first and foremost a lot of code. AI is getting good at coding first for good reason.
Finally, as OP says, the hard work in engineering is actually scoping requirements and then executing and iterating on that. Some of that is technical know-how. A lot is also political and social skills. Again, customers are okay with a vibe-coded website in a way most people are not with even support chatbots.
