Yeah I think I both overestimated how "stupid" the establishment was 10y+ ago and underestimated how many that are actually susceptible to tribal incitement.
Yep. I also attribute it to getting older and more conservative. (actually conservative, not this revanchist destructionism cloaking itself in the label "conservative").
Your usage of the word "naive" to describe how you thought of the establishment is weird to me. I was surely naive. And I still don't even really see that as a bad thing (is it not the job of youth to imagine a better world and push us forward?). But I saw the establishment as more suffocating, tired, preaching to the lowest common denominator, puppets of entrenched interests, etc.