> Once this occurs, many software engineers could perhaps transition into adjacent positions that rely on similar expertise but are significantly harder to automate, such as software engineering management, product management, or executive leadership within software companies.
> In these roles, their responsibilities would shift from writing code and debugging to higher-level oversight, decision-making, and strategic planning—until these responsibilities can be automated too.
When they spoke on Dwarkesh's podcast they seemed to think this would take 30 years. Not sure why we coders are so quick to be automated but the rest aren't.
That's...ridiculous. I'm a product manager, and AI is already chipping away at my job.
Two months ago I said to one of my devs, "Our dashboard here looks very bland. What if we had a more visual display of the pipeline statuses across the top of the screen?" He said he thought that was a good idea, and I went to lunch. I came back and started sketching up some ideas for how to lay out the statuses. I had barely gotten started with that when he called me over to show me what cursor had come up with when asked: it was better than what I was sketching, for sure.
We're (white collar work) going to be 90% automated in less than ten years, and I feel like I'm being conservative saying ten years.
You occasionally do glimpse behind the curtains; depending on what you actually develop it's feasible and quick to prompt it, but attempting to go further than that across multiple components collapses so drastically that I cannot help but feel that all ai stuff is entirely incapable of replicating the real thing at the moment.
> I cannot help but feel that all ai stuff is entirely incapable of replicating the real thing
But that's what they were saying about a simple paragraph of coherent writing five years ago. And what they were saying about structured output three years ago. And now I can ask for a coherent breakdown of the functionality that might be required for a ticket tracking system, with a list of use cases and screens to support them, and user personas, and expect that the result will be a little generic, but coherent. I can give Claude a picture of a UI and ask for suggestions for improvement, and half the ideas will be interesting.
We really have to STOP listening to these people and see that they ALL have a vested interest.
In the third paragraph of the podcast Dwarkesh already told you that he already invested.
>>> (disclosure - I’m an angel investor),
At that point the co-founders and Dwarkesh himself will agree on everything and they will say anything to get more VC money - Even if the timelines are unrealistic. (Because that is the scam).
> In these roles, their responsibilities would shift from writing code and debugging to higher-level oversight, decision-making, and strategic planning—until these responsibilities can be automated too.
When they spoke on Dwarkesh's podcast they seemed to think this would take 30 years. Not sure why we coders are so quick to be automated but the rest aren't.
https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ege-tamay