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> 30 years

That's...ridiculous. I'm a product manager, and AI is already chipping away at my job.

Two months ago I said to one of my devs, "Our dashboard here looks very bland. What if we had a more visual display of the pipeline statuses across the top of the screen?" He said he thought that was a good idea, and I went to lunch. I came back and started sketching up some ideas for how to lay out the statuses. I had barely gotten started with that when he called me over to show me what cursor had come up with when asked: it was better than what I was sketching, for sure.

We're (white collar work) going to be 90% automated in less than ten years, and I feel like I'm being conservative saying ten years.



You occasionally do glimpse behind the curtains; depending on what you actually develop it's feasible and quick to prompt it, but attempting to go further than that across multiple components collapses so drastically that I cannot help but feel that all ai stuff is entirely incapable of replicating the real thing at the moment.


> I cannot help but feel that all ai stuff is entirely incapable of replicating the real thing

But that's what they were saying about a simple paragraph of coherent writing five years ago. And what they were saying about structured output three years ago. And now I can ask for a coherent breakdown of the functionality that might be required for a ticket tracking system, with a list of use cases and screens to support them, and user personas, and expect that the result will be a little generic, but coherent. I can give Claude a picture of a UI and ask for suggestions for improvement, and half the ideas will be interesting.




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